- If achieved, this would mean that ES8 monthly sales could return to historical highs for a considerable period of time.
- Given the higher-than-expected sales volume, Deutsche Bank analysts have raised their price target for Nio in Hong Kong from HK$71.00 to HK$75.00.
Deutsche Bank analysts anticipate that Nio Inc (NYSE: NIO) will achieve an average monthly sales volume of 3,000 units for its third-generation ES8, given the highly competitive pricing of the large electric SUV (sport utility vehicle).
Analyst Wang Bin’s team made this forecast in a research note released today. If realized, this would mean the large SUV’s monthly sales volume could return to its historical peak levels for considerable period of time.
The ES8 is Nio’s first mass-produced vehicle, with deliveries beginning in June 2018. It delivered 3,089 units in November 2018 and 3,318 units in December 2018, marking its two highest-selling months.
Nio unveiled the third-generation ES8 yesterday and began pre-sales, with the official launch set for next month’s Nio Day 2025.
The model starts at RMB 416,800 ($58,030) including a 100-kWh battery pack, a reduction of RMB 139,200, or 25.04 percent, from the previous 100-kWh version ES8’s starting price of RMB 556,000.
Under the BaaS (battery as a service) battery rental plan, the third-generation ES8 has a starting price of RMB 308,800, lower than the RMB 428,000 BaaS starting price of the older ES8 with the same 100-kWh battery.
Typically, the final price is lower than the pre-sales price, and based on past industry practices, the final starting price is expected to be around RMB 399,000, according to Deutsche Bank.
Compared to models such as the Aito M9 EV, Aito M8 EV, Li L9, and the upcoming Zeekr 9X, the new-generation ES8 not only offers a larger size but also a more competitive price, according to Wang’s team.
The team currently forecasts Nio Group’s annual sales volume for 2025 at 320,000 units, with sales volumes of 460,000 units and 570,000 units for 2026 and 2027, respectively.
Given the higher-than-expected sales, the team has adjusted its forecast for Nio’s net loss in 2025 from RMB 17.76 billion yuan to RMB 17.57 billion yuan, resulting a target price hike from HK$71.00 to HK$75.00.
Nio surged in early trading in Hong Kong today, rising 6.8 percent to HK$43.98 as of the time of writing.
Since July, Nio has risen 60 percent in Hong Kong, driven by that includes the launch of the Onvo L90.
($1 = RMB 7.1825)
